130Alternative Fuelshe Future of HydrogenFuel cells offer a major step in improved efiency and reduced emissions. Modeling Fuel Cell Cars Some computer models of fuel cell cars show how much power is needed at the wheel, computed from the weight of the car, energy of the fuel, accessories and other variables including mileage. An onboard reformer is shown to provide 70 miles per gallon, but compressed hydrogen increases this to the equivalent of 100 miles per gallon. The models show that 60-70 miles per gallon is possible in hybrid cars using small gasoline or direct-injection diesel engines, which have much higher emissions. In 1998 the auto industry moved from weak commitments to a solid move toward fuel cells and EVs. All the auto companies are pursuing hydrogen fuel cells in some way. But, the new cars on the road in the near future are likely to be a mix of vehicles including those with electric drive, including battery EVs, hybrids with gasoline and direct-injection diesels, turbo generators and fuel cells. The move to fuel cells may not be pushed by declining oil supplies. The cost of developing new oil discoveries continues to fall and we may not see a forced drop in productivity. It was thought that there was 1.5 billion barrels of oil in the North Sea, but now there appears to be 6 billion barrels. We may not begin to reach the physical limits of oil production until mid-century. But, supplies could tighten quickly from natural or man-made disasters. One factor in the shift to fuel cells is concern over climate changes. Global warming is a factor that most people perceive. However, is global warming being affected by our carbon economyTHE END OF THE CARBON ECONOMY We may be looking at the end of the carbon economy and the replacement of internal combustion power with fuel cells. Technology is driving our lives with tiny chips that have many times the computing power of larger 3-year-old computers, yet they cost less to manufacture. Lighter, stronger materials and structures make electrical drives more feasible. Technology, legislative mandates and increased competition for markets will drive the fuel cell for automobiles and electrical power.
