This report analyzes the effects of an innovative and controversialprogram--voluntary accelerated vehicle retirement--that is part of California's plan for complying with federal clean-air standards by the required date of 2010. Under this program, whose implementation is in doubt, during each year from 2001 to 2010 as many as 75,000 light-duty vehicles (LDVs) that are at least 15 years old would be purchased in the greater Los Angeles area and then scrapped. The authors' analysis of program effectsaccounts for LDV-market responses including increases in used-LDV prices and consequent migration of vehicles into the region where LDVs are scrapped. The analysis predicts that program-induced increases in used-LDV prices will be between $22 and $271 in 2010; thebest point estimate is $66 per LDV. While predicted emission reductions are largest for 2005, the program would almost certainly reduce emissions by between 8 and 28 tons per day in 2010, with actual reductions probably closer to the upper end. The authors analyze program cost effectiveness, conclude that a vehicle-scrapping program should be implemented, and suggest ways the program might be improved.
