Modeling Combat, Sizing Forces 89missions, to attack airlds and planes on those airlds. The missiles are numerous, now totaling about 1,000 in southeastern China near Taiwan. While China ballistic missiles (as well as its cruise missiles) have been rather inaccurate to date, that is changing.飿撅樋 As for planes, China has about 100 airports of all kinds within 600 miles of Taiwan. Approximately 750 military aircraft are normally located at the twenty such airports used by the military.飿撅檧 Taiwan has hardened shelters for most of its hters. Of course, it would have to keep aircraft in those shelters routinely to survive any surprise attack, or have advance warning of the attack. Taiwan has another challenge here, too: keeping runways operational. Two to three dozen planes might be needed to shut down a given runway, or a somewhat lesser number in combination with China more accurate missiles.飿撅檨 Taiwan could begin to repair runways after any Chinese strike, assuming it has suient runway-repair equipment (and suiently hardened maintenance facilities and fuel distribution infrastructure).飿匡樄 China could undertake subsequent attack sorties, of course. However, Taiwan anti-aircraft artillery and SAMs would then be on a high state of vigilance, and the Chinese air force might well lose 5 to 10 percent of their planes on each subsequent sortie, even if able to use stando�precisionguided munitions that allowed them to stay out of the immediate environs of the airlds. So Taiwan would have a good chance to keep large numbers of aircraft functional after a PRC surprise strike, assuming it was vigilant and careful in day-to-day security operations as well as in its hardening of key facilities.飿匡洔 Given the number of shelters it owns, unless it was completely careless, Taiwan should retain about half its air force (perhaps 300 planes) after even a masterful PRC surprise strike.The Initial Amphibious AssaultThe next stage in the battle, amphibious assault, is somewhat simpler to model. It is largely a question of how fast transport ships can be loaded, sailed, and unloaded, as well as of how fast a defender force can be mobilized and sent to hting positions. While the math is simple enough to follow in general, focusing on the China揟aiwan case provides some additional clarity as an example. China has the capacity to transport 10,000 to 15,000 troops with some heavy armor by amphibious lift.飿匡樅
